Case Study · Housing & Real Estate
$1.9 Billion Average Annual Social Value from a Three-Year Ontario New-Home Sales-Tax Holiday
A temporary three-year sales-tax holiday on new Ontario homes was tested as a counter-cyclical bridge for a residential construction market facing a material demand-and-cost dislocation.
Average annual impact, 2026–2035
$1.9B social value
Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario (RCCAO) · 2026
What the Work Shows
The modelling found that a three-year sales-tax holiday could improve social value by about $1.9 billion per year on average over 2026–2035, compared with the trend baseline, while supporting housing delivery and workforce capacity. The broader analysis projected 37% fewer housing starts and 33.7% fewer completions over the next five years if the market dislocation persisted, with younger workers carrying a disproportionate share of displacement.
The case shows how a tax measure can be evaluated beyond unit sales or government revenue alone — by tracing housing delivery, employment, household outcomes and fiscal effects together.
View the public CANCEA source →A Connected View of Value
The analysis follows consequences through the people affected, compares outcomes across plausible alternatives, and keeps economic, fiscal and wellbeing effects connected rather than reporting each in isolation.
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