Case Study · Income & social policy
Potential Economic Impacts and Reach of Basic Income Programs
A national scenario analysis of how program design and funding choices shape household and economy-wide outcomes.
Headline finding
3.2M families
UBI Works · 2021
What the Work Shows
CANCEA modelled two potential Canadian basic-income programs, each guaranteeing individuals an annual income of $24,000, and tested how alternative funding approaches changed the results. The analysis examined household outcomes alongside GDP, employment, government revenues and longer-run fiscal sustainability.
Both modelled programs could lift more than 3.2 million families out of poverty. The economic effects varied materially depending on how the programs were funded, making financing design central to the analysis rather than an afterthought.
Why It Matters
The case demonstrates why transfer-program evaluation requires both household distribution and system-wide financing effects: the same benefit design can produce very different outcomes under different funding structures.
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