Case Study · Housing & Real Estate
$1.9 Billion in Annual Social Value from Ontario New-Home Sales-Tax Relief
A temporary three-year sales-tax holiday on new Ontario homes was tested as a counter-cyclical bridge for a residential construction market facing a material demand-and-cost dislocation.
Headline finding
$1.9B annually
Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario (RCCAO) · 2026
What the Work Shows
The modelling found that a temporary tax bridge could create about $1.9 billion in annual social value while supporting housing delivery and workforce capacity. The broader analysis projected 37% fewer housing starts and 33.7% fewer completions over the next five years if the market dislocation persisted, with younger workers carrying a disproportionate share of displacement.
The case shows how a tax measure can be evaluated beyond unit sales or government revenue alone — by tracing housing delivery, employment, household outcomes and fiscal effects together.
A Connected View of Value
The analysis follows consequences through the people affected, compares outcomes across plausible alternatives, and keeps economic, fiscal and wellbeing effects connected rather than reporting each in isolation.
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